Thousands upon thousands of column inches are being written — and hours and hours of commentary being espoused — on Israel’s pullout from Gaza. Rationale, strategies, reactions, next steps are being chronicled. But in the end, it is one of pragmatism — and one that is essential. It is driven more by the realities of demographics, economics and security than any of the grand schemes that are being bandied about — including “The Road Map.” As has often been said, Israel has no foreign policy, just domestic policy. If you were the prime minister of Israel, what would you do?

The World’s Jewish population continues to shrink, both in the absolute and relatively. Jewish immigration to Israel is now effectively zero. The birthrate in Israel is 18 per 1,000. How will Israel sustain its existence? That is an overreaching issue that gets lost in the shuffle.

There were 21 Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, with around 5,000 permanent settlers (ballooned up to around 9,000, but the smaller number is more representative), which consumed approximately one-third of the land mass in Gaza, with approximately 1.4 million Arabs living in the remainder. The Gaza Strip is just slightly larger than twice the size of the District of Columbia. The average age of Arabs in Gaza is 15.6 years, and there is a robust population growth of 3.77 percent, with the birth rate of 41 per 1,000. The GDP per capita of these Arabs is $600 ,or less than $2 a day, with 80 percent below the poverty level.

Over 20,000 Israeli Defense (ground) Forces had to be devoted to the protection of these settlers and the control of Gaza — a 4-to-1 ratio; four soldiers for every settler. This was not a sustainable situation for Israel. Thus, building a wall and extracting the settlers, while continuing to control sea, air and ground access of Gaza — keeping terrorists in Gaza out of Israel, and “outside” terrorists from entering Gaza, seemed to be the most plausible solution. For every rocket attack over the wall, the Israelis — as is their practice — would hurl five rockets back.

Further, the withdrawal puts intense pressure on the Palestinian Administration (PA) to control the violence against Israel, and Hamas in particular. The PA needs to convey that they are in control and can maintain a peaceful existence in order to get investments and financial assistance from other countries, and to put pressure on Israel to ease up on access to and from Gaza. If rocket attacks from Gaza resume, then this will give Israel further justification not to ease up on access, and just keep the Arabs in Gaza walled in. If the PA cannot keep the peace, then it provides further justification for Israeli not making any significant retrenchments of settlements from the West Bank.

Even in the best of circumstances, Israel will not recede to the pre-1967 boundaries. Only a handful of settlements would be dismantled in the best case. Columnists and pundits speak of the essentiality of providing access from Gaza to the West Bank so that the Palestinians can get their economy going and to work toward the creation of a Palestinian State. For those who have visited this region, how would such access work? It is far easier as a concept than as a practice. I don’t see how that works.

The West Bank is slightly smaller than the State of Delaware. There are approximately 240 settlements in the West Bank with nearly 200,000 Israeli settlers, with another 175,000 Israelis now in East Jerusalem. The West Bank has a population of 2.4 million, including these 360,000 Jewish settlers. Arab births in the West Bank are around 32 per 1,000. The average age of the Arabs in the West Bank is 18 (versus 15.6 in Gaza and 30 in Israel). The GDP is around $800 per capita, or just over $2 per day. Arab unemployment is approximately 60 percent. The situation of Jerusalem now is non-negotiable.

It is beyond remote that a Palestinian capital will ever be in East Jerusalem now. But, when taken together, the Arab population in “Palestine” is growing by leaps and bounds, whereas the growth within Israel is less so. The violence, security issues, and turmoil are taking its toil on the economy and psyche of the Israelis. The Israelis are walling themselves in, and the Palestinians out.

The Israelis (and the U.S.) can spin the unilateral pull-out of Gaza (coupled with the earlier pull-out of Southern Lebanon), as gestures towards peace — the former being a component of “The Road Map.” Israel pulled out, asking and expecting nothing in return. But, what did the Palestinians actually get? That remains to be seen — but, without ingress and egress, they are essentially walled in, and without a way to build the economy.

So, what happens now? I would believe the Israelis are done for a while. If rockets or terror attacks resume, the Israelis will retaliate — as they further isolate themselves from the Palestinians. They can also say “I told you so.” The average Palestinians, who relied on Israel for employment (and security), are the losers. But, as long as the predominant Palestinian leaders still seek a total destruction of Israel — which is Hamas’ mission — what other roads are there to travel? The PA is in a real predicament.

There certainly have been a lot of twists and turns since Chaim Weizmann bounced among Lloyd George, Woodrow Wilson, Arthur Balfour, and others during the 1919 Paris Peace Talks. The current situation dates back to the Jews and the Arabs in Palestine being promised essentially the same thing, and each being reneged on.

Boundaries were drawn — and changed without thought of the implications. Friends, or those to be rewarded with spoils, were installed as rulers of these new countries: Feisal in (newly constructed) Iraq and his older brother in Trans-Jordan. There are no easy solutions — and perhaps no solutions other than the course Israel is on. After 1948 when Egypt grabbed Gaza and Trans Jordan grabbed the West Bank, they could have worked toward a home for the Arabs in Palestine. But, the Arab World then was not content with that — they wanted the total removal of the Jews. Unfortunately, in life there are no “do-overs.”

(Lee Shelton lives in Maggie Valley and can be reached at lshelto@gsb.uchicago.edu.)