The North Carolina battle for U.S. Senate is garnering major national attention for its potential to swing the balance of power heavily in favor of Democrats in the Senate — and mountain voters could ultimately be the ones to determine the outcome.

The race pits incumbent and long-time Washington fixture Elizabeth Dole against state senator and Democrat Kay Hagan, who has the edge in preliminary polls.

Statewide, Hagan leads by a razor-thin margin of 46 percent to Dole’s 44 percent, according to Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh-based political tracking firm. If she wins, she’ll boost the number of Senate Democrats to 60 — the number of votes needed to prevent Republican filibusters.

The Dems currently boast a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate, and attempts to secure the necessary 60 votes to advance legislation have been blocked by Republicans. They’re pinning hopes on pivotal races like the Hagan/Dole battle to give them the ability to pass sweeping legislation.

The implications of a Hagan victory are so important that the Democratic Senatorial Committee has spent $4 million to advertise the race in North Carolina — more than in any other Senate race, according to political data firm TNS Media Intelligence.

Yet it’s not just the implications — but the unlikely dynamics of the race — that have made it a national focus.

By all accounts, Hagan — a state senator little known except to the people in her district — wasn’t supposed to have a chance against a nationally-recognized figure like Dole. Dole has served under three presidents. She’s been Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation and Secretary of Labor. She was president of the Red Cross. She ran for president of the country.

Hagan’s titles — a bank vice president, stay-at-home mom, 10-year state senator — haven’t been as glamorous.

“In a number of ways, what she’s doing is pretty impressive to be competitive against an incumbent,” said Gibbs Knotts, director of the political science department at Western Carolina University.

Yet Dole has one distinct disadvantage — though a North Carolina native, her primary residence is in Kansas — that voters haven’t been able to ignore.

“I think there’s probably still some lingering feelings of — is she really a North Carolinian?” says Knotts. “She’s been in Washington, she’s held a cabinet post, and she’s definitely qualified to be senator – but does she really kind of understand North Carolina?”

Jensen, with Public Policy Polling, attributes Dole’s lagging numbers to other factors. Since she already has the name recognition, she hasn’t been campaigning as hard as Hagan.

“Basically, Dole has run a really anemic campaign for a long time,” Jensen said. “She’s finally gotten her act together a little bit, and is faring better statewide.”

Indeed, Dole finally visited several mountain communities — including Franklin, Robbinsville, and Waynesville — this past weekend. It’s a region where the Senator formerly took for granted a steady base of support. Now, though, Dole and Hagan are locked in a dead heat with 45 percent of the vote each.

“The mountains are a place where Dole did much better in her first campaign than she is doing,” Jensen said. “She won the region by a good margin in 2002. For Hagan to be so competitive, there is a sign that voters aren’t thrilled with the attentiveness she’s shown the region.”

Mountain voters could ultimately determine the outcome of the race.

“It’s so closely split in the region that if one or the other is able to get a leg up on mountain voters, it could give them a chance to break the tie statewide,” Jensen said.

To find out more about the candidates, visit their respective Web sites.

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