Though experts across the board have proclaimed this a year for the Democrats, there’s an increasing possibility that North Carolina’s next governor will be Republican.

By all accounts, Lt. Governor and Democratic candidate Beverly Perdue should be handily defeating her opponent, Charlotte mayor and Republican Pat McCrory, in preliminary polls.

Yet it’s McCrory who’s leading in the final countdown to the election. Public Policy Polling, based in Raleigh, shows McCrory has a slight advantage over Perdue in the mountains — 46 percent to 44 percent, respectively. The rest of the state shows nearly identical figures.

Several factors should have worked in Perdue’s favor this year. Nationally, experts across the board have proclaimed this a year for Democrats to shine. And North Carolina has a staunch tradition of electing a Democrat to the state’s highest office — the last Republican governor was elected in 1988; before that, only two had served since Reconstruction, according to Gibbs Knotts, who heads up the political science department at Western Carolina University.

Knotts expressed surprise at the polling data.

“McCrory is running an uphill battle — most indicators would suggest Perdue would be up,” he said.

Perdue also has greater name recognition. She’s the first female lieutenant governor and has served in the state’s second highest post for seven years.

During her tenure, Perdue has become known for her stance on universal healthcare for children and expanded coverage of seniors and families. She initiated the NC Green Business fund that provides incentives for businesses focused on alternative energy and efficiency and has pushed for clean air initiatives and a stop to coal-fired power plants.

As the only Charlotte mayor to be elected to seven terms, McCrory has his own list of prestigious accomplishments. He’s well thought of for his progressive stance on planning — adopting policies that require sidewalks with roads and protection of tree canopy and bringing light rail to the city. McCrory’s 50-year state transportation plan calls for incorporating mass transit and land-use planning as roads are built.

Yet though McCrory heads up the state’s largest city, his recognition doesn’t extend much past the Charlotte borders.

“I think that’s the challenge of a mayor when they run for statewide office,” Knotts said.

Perdue’s hard-fought primary campaign against candidate Richard Moore may have ultimately helped to boost McCrory’s numbers. She emerged the winner — but aired some negativity in the process.

“The conventional wisdom is when you have a tough primary, a lot of negatives come out, which weakens you as a general election candidate,” said Knotts.

McCrory had a tough primary too, beating out five other GOP candidates. Yet Perdue seems to have continued a negative campaign in a way that he has not. Her campaign has released ads accusing McCrory of supporting private school vouchers; slashing police salary while giving himself a raise; and supporting a proposal for other states to dump their trash in North Carolina. Perdue has also said the Charlotte mayor lacks understanding of middle-class problems.

McCrory has fought back to an extent, accusing Perdue of changing her stance on offshore drilling (she now supports it) and being an entrenched member of the “status quo” in state government.

“Negative campaigning can work, but you’re walking a fine line,” said Knotts. “It has the potential to backfire.”

For more on Pat McCrory or Beverly Perdue, visit their Web sites.

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