In mid-August, Stephen Duncan, the chair of the GOP 11th Congressional District, was confident that Barack Obama’s unprecedented campaign effort would soon lose steam in North Carolina.

“Their resources are going to start being absorbed in (other battleground states), and they’re going to find out that North Carolina is not going to be in their column and that they’re wasting their resources,” Duncan predicted.

Yet Duncan’s scenario didn’t exactly play out as he’d imagined. With barely two weeks to go before the Nov. 4 election, the state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president in 30 years is not only still a battleground — by some accounts, it’s the only one left.

On political maps — such as the Political Tracker on the popular Web site Yahoo – North Carolina sticks out like a sore thumb. It’s the single striped state in a sea of red or blue on the political tracker map, providing a perfect visual of just how vital it is to the victory of both campaigns.

A tally of probable electoral votes shows it will be nearly impossible for McCain to win the presidency if he doesn’t win North Carolina. And if Obama wins North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, he’ll almost certainly win it all.

“If Obama wins North Carolina, he wins the White House,” says Gibbs Knotts, head of the political science department at Western Carolina University. “If Obama can win a state that has been so Republican, with the amount of conservatives that we have — if an African-American on the Democratic ticket can win North Carolina — I can’t envision him not winning the White House.”

According to the latest polls from Public Policy Polling, a political data tracking firm in Raleigh, Obama has secured a lead of 51 percent to Republican opponent John McCain’s 44 percent.

Winning WNC

Although a Democratic presidential victory in North Carolina would be one for the books, a win in the rural, conservative western areas of the state would be particularly historic.

“In 2004, George W. Bush won in the mountains by 18 percent with 59 percent of the vote,” said Tom Jensen, communications director for Public Policy Polling. “This year, McCain is only winning there by a slight margin. There’s been a big shift in the Democratic section.”

Though the gap has widened in the most recent poll — McCain has 52 percent and Obama 44 percent — that’s a much narrower lead than has been the case historically. Mountain voters have almost always picked the candidate that closely shares their conservative values.

“I think much of the vote in WNC has been for the more conservative candidate, and most of the time that has been the Republican,” says Bob Clark, chair of Haywood County for Obama.

“McCain certainly does tie more into the Southern Bible Belt of WNC and the beliefs held near and dear to the principals of the Republican Party, I believe more so than the Democratic Party,” says Mike Clampitt, chair of the Swain County GOP.

The conservative sentiment is so strong that McCain’s choice of a right-wing vice president could have made him seem less moderate to mountain voters and contributed to his slight increase in polls.

“I think she has excited an Evangelical part of the Republican base,” says Knotts.

Knotts is quick to mention, though, that McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin could just have likely turned off others.

“He’s done a good bit of damage with the more moderate, middle of the road voter — we’ve got both types of folks in WNC,” he said.

Yet conservatism may take a back seat for voters as the economy becomes the most pressing issue. According to Public Policy Polling, 61 percent of North Carolinians ranked the economy as the most important of seven key issues. Moral and family values came in a distance second with 11 percent of the vote.

“This is generally a conservative region, so McCain will do well on that account, but the fact that the economy is in bad shape and the Republican president is unpopular makes it a good time for Democrats,” said Knotts.

McCain has been quoted as saying the economy is not his strong suit. That may not sit well with mountain voters.

“I think this is a place where the economic conditions matters, and a place that has suffered some job losses,” Knotts said. “I think Obama may do better on that point in WNC.”

Clinton Slagle, a Swain County resident, exemplifies the idea that concern over the economy could trump the importance of conservative values in the election. When it comes to social issues, Slagle and Obama have almost nothing in common.

“To me, abortion ain’t nothing but legalized murder,” he said. “And gay marriage, well that’s straight out of the Bible right there.”

Yet, in the shadow of the Confederate flag that adorns his wall, Slagle builds giant wooden Obama signs to show his support for the Democratic candidate. He says that social issues take a backseat to things like the economy, healthcare, and the war.

“In my lifetime, as far as I’ve seen, when we’ve got a Republican in office, the middle class have less money and less jobs,” Slagle said. “If there’s a Democrat in office, there’s more money flowing and more jobs for the lower class people.”

The race factor

Concern over the economy may overshadow the importance placed on conservative values by mountain voters, but whether race will still play a factor remains to be seen.

Slagle insists that doesn’t matter to him.

“Personally, to me, race or sex, that shouldn’t matter,” he says. “I vote for the person.”

The last race in 1996 that pitted a black Democratic liberal candidate, Harvey Gantt, against a white conservative, Jesse Helms, appeared to reflect Slagle’s sentiment. Gantt defeated Helms in Haywood, Jackson and Swain counties. Helms won in Macon.

Yet racism evidently still persists in the mountains. Slagle’s hand-built Obama sign was defaced with a racial slur on the fifth night it stood across from Swain County High School.

That incident hopefully represents the views of a tiny percentage of the population. Knotts said he thinks more and more people are looking past Obama’s race to his accomplishments.

“That’s the thing — in some ways, he’s the American dream,” Knotts said. “If you can’t get behind that, what can you get behind?”

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