But Miss Scarlett, I don't know nothin' about birthin' no babies.
- Words to this effect spoken by Prissy to Scarlett OHara in “Gone With The Wind”

Like Prissy, Italy and Spain don’t know much about birthin’ babies these days either. Nor do England, Germany or the Netherlands. Japan, France and even the United States are also faring poorly in the birthin’ department.

The statistics are right here in my World Almanac 2001. According to this venerable source, Italy will have lost more than 25 percent of its current population to declining birthrates by the year 2050, down from 58 million to 38 million people. Ditto for Spain. Russia, Japan and France will lose only about 20 percent. Germany — the last European nation to rank in the top 15 of the world’s most populous nations — will lose over 25 percent of its population by that time.

Those who want a smaller world population may cheer these statistics, but such people are blind to their ramifications. First, all of these populations are not only failing to replace themselves, but they are also aging. All of the above countries contain great blocks of graying elders who will demand and need care in their retirement. Who is going to provide the care to the Herr Schmidts and the Madame Poirots when there are not enough little Schmidts or Poirots to go around?

European leaders are struggling to turn around this declining birthrate. Several countries have begun offering tax incentives and payments to women to have more children. So far, these programs have met with uniform failure. Other countries also have begun allowing more foreign labor inside their borders to take the place of the unborn natives.

Another industrialized country, Israel, has population problems that are even more immediately severe. In 20 years Israel and her occupied territories will be 58 percent Arab. The gap between Jews and Arabs, coupled with the unceasing riots and bombings of the last months, have caused Israelis from both major political parties to begin re-examining their basic ideas regarding the occupied territories.

There is strong talk of giving up some of the occupied territories and of formally defining Israel’s borders. Demographics has also placed a heavy hand on internal Israeli politics: Orthodox Jews, who are usually politically conservative, are having two and three times more children than their more liberal Jewish neighbors.

The Population Reference Bureau’s 2001 annual report found that the United States is the only industrialized country in the world with a fertility rate above replacement level (2.1 children per woman). This bit of news isn’t particularly encouraging; the U.S. is only slightly above the replacement level, and over a third of U.S. births are illegitimate. Increased illegitimate birth rates generally mean more of a drain on welfare resources as well as on all other parts of the political and economic system.
In the next 50 years, the population of the United States will increase from 275 million to nearly 394 million (and you thought it was crowded now in the mountains). Much of this increase will be the result of immigration into a country which has seemingly lost control of its borders.

The inhabitants of some countries still know about birthin’ babies. Mexico is projected to grow from 100 million to 137 million; Nigeria, from 127 million to 204 million; Pakistan from 141 million to 260 million. India and China, two giants in terms of population, are both slated to remain at roughly one billion people each.

Some population experts contend that in the next 50 years, the number of births worldwide will stabilize and will then begin a slow decline.

What do all these figures mean? One thing is immediately clear: The industrialized nations must soon address the economic fallout of this projected decline. Europe in the middle of the 14th century lost more than a third of its population to the plague, causing enormous disruptions to society. Europe now stands to lose nearly that many to limited procreation, though over a greater period of time. Fewer and fewer workers, no matter how productive, cannot continue to support more and more retirees while still hoping to have families of their own. The consequences of these declining populations are already becoming apparent, especially in Japan, Italy, Germany and Russia.

We may also expect to see increased friction between developing nations and industrial nations. Quoting the Population Reference Bureau report, Chronicles Magazine tells us that “of the 83 million people added to the global population each year by the difference between births and deaths, only 1 million are in the industrialized nations.” The populous nations will not only demand more aid from the West and its Asian allies, but the populous nations will also be the nations of economic growth. Some commentators have connected the "Asian Miracle" with the huge increase in populations in that area of the globe.

We may also expect a rise in hostilities among racial groups within nations as immigrants enter the underpopulated industrial countries. Recent large migrations of Indians, Pakistanis, Turks and other Islamic peoples into Germany, England, and France have already lead to heightened racial and cultural tensions, with riots and other various conflicts taking place.

Even here in the United States, where our politicians and intelligentsia preach tolerance as the greatest virtue and intolerance as the greatest sin, clashes among ethnic groups may not only continue but worsen. What if multi-culturalism — that dream so dear to so many American leaders  proves to be more pipedream than reality? Clearly the very wealthy benefit from these population dislocations in terms of acquiring cheap labor, but most Americans are paying a price in the current battles over jobs, benefits, language, culture, and the definition of what it means to be an American (I am tempted to take a stick to the next talking pinata who tells me that we all need to learn Spanish; I’ve read a little history, and not too many people in 1908 were running around New York City telling the natives to learn Yiddish and Italian. We've got the idea in reverse; immigrants to this country need to learn English.)

When I was in college back in the 1970s, I heard several professors and many students rail against motherhood and babies, saying that the world, including our country, was overcrowded and that bringing more children into such a world was immoral. These doomsayers predicted worldwide famine; the famines never materialized, except in those countries where thugs used hunger as a political tool, but these erroneous predictions frightened a lot of people. The doctrine of these contraceptors has become so commonplace that in America today families with 4 or 5 children seem abnormal, while families with 7, 9, or even 16 children seem downright immoral (And yes, there are still families that big in this country.) The contraception forces have won. By means of abortion, pill, and propaganda, they have brought the industrialized nations to the point of negative birthrates. We have reached the moment in history where we must begin to face the consequences of what one commentator, Ben Wattenberg, has poetically called a “birth death.”

I don’t profess to have many answers on these issues. I’m just a guy with an almanac and some statistics. Permit me, however, to make one suggestion. The next time you’re standing in line at the Bi-Lo behind a mom struggling with three or four small children, her checkbook and her groceries, you might refrain from glaring at her or wondering if she’s ever heard of birth control. You might instead keep a kind thought for that little family, even say a prayer if you’re a believer. You see, those kids she’s raising are your insurance. They’re going to be footing the bill for your social security. They’re your future.

Heck, you might even go the extra mile and help the lady carry her groceries to her car.

Jeff Minick owns Saints and Scholars bookstore on Main Street in Waynesville.

 

Back to Top
The Smoky Mountain News